Insights · NFL · by stat
Which numbers do the books find hardest to set?
A well-priced number sits near a coin flip, and most of them do. Across tonight's board the stats spread 11 points apart on how often players clear them, and the books disagree most on passing yards — an average of 5.82 between the highest and lowest number posted, against 0 on interceptions thrown.
How often the over lands, by stat
- Rush + Rec Yards54%270/49752 props
- Receiving Yards52%578/1121116 props
- Passing Yards50%108/21422 props
- Carries50%228/45447 props
- Passing TDs50%107/21422 props
- Rushing Yards49%262/53055 props
- Receptions46%502/1090115 props
- Interceptions Thrown46%98/21422 props
- Completions45%96/21422 props
- Pass Attempts43%92/21422 props
How far apart the books are
- Passing Yards5.8222 props
- Rush + Rec Yards2.0333 props
- Rushing Yards1.8552 props
- Receiving Yards1.71114 props
- Pass Attempts0.7722 props
- Completions0.6622 props
- Carries0.544 props
- Receptions0.26107 props
- Passing TDs0.1822 props
- Interceptions Thrown022 props
The wider the gap, the more the number you are offered depends on which app you opened. That comparison is what the line shop is for.
How this was counted
The first table pools every prop's ten-game rate by stat, one vote per prop rather than one per book. A stat needs at least five props on the board before it appears.
The second is the average distance between the highest and lowest number posted for the same prop, in that stat's own units. It measures how far apart the books are, not who is right.
Every figure here is a count of games already played. It is not a forecast, and nothing on this page is a recommendation about tonight.
Recomputed with the nightly board, Sep 7, 10:39 AM ET. Game logs from nflverse, CC BY 4.0.