Three numbers on every prop, and what each one claims.
Hit rate is what happened: how often he cleared this game's number, as a count you can check game by game. Sample is how much that count can bear: how many games, how many from this season, and whether his role has changed. The DPB Signal is the formula's estimate of the chance the side lands, from his workload, the matchup and who is out, calibrated on settled props. On pro football it is provisional: it has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the board ranks by hit rate and the Signal sits beside it as a model estimate. Its record is public, week by week.
SIGNALEvery prop on this week's board, ranked by hit rate
Six counts sit on every row. The board ranks by hit rate, and the Signal sits beside it: on NFL it is provisional until it beats the books' own lines on weeks it never saw.
Hit rate
How often he has cleared this game's number in his last ten — this season's games count for more.
Margin
How far past the number he usually lands. By a hair and by a mile are not the same fact.
Opponent
What this week's opponent has allowed to his position in this stat, ranked across the league.
Game
The spread and total the books posted, and the points they imply for his team.
Usage
His share of targets in the last three games against the last ten. Roles change; rates go stale.
The line
Which way the number has moved since it opened — and whether this book's sits friendlier.
Weighed together, sized to the sample
Every count pointed at the side his history leans. A perfect two-for-two is real — but it is two games. Every week, settled props check the Signal against what actually landed.
The fitted Signal: six counts, one number
1Hit rate
How often he has cleared this game's number in his last ten, with this season's games counting for more than last season's.
e.g. 9 of 10 · 2 of 2 this season
2Margin
How far past the number he usually lands. Nine of ten by a hair and nine of ten by forty yards are not the same fact.
e.g. +2.1 receptions on average
3Opponent
What this week's opponent has allowed to his position in this stat, this season, ranked across the league.
e.g. DET allows the 6th-most to receivers
4Game
The spread and total the books have posted, and the points they imply for his team, ranked among every team on the slate.
e.g. BUF implied 27.3 · 2nd of 30
5Usage
His share of his team's targets or carries in the last three games against the last ten. A rate goes stale when the role changes.
e.g. target share up 3 points
6The line
Which way the number has moved since it opened, and whether this book's number sits friendlier than the others'.
e.g. opened 1.5 · unmoved
One number comes out
Where the formula doesn't run, the six are weighed by a fit re-made every night on every prop that has settled, then judged on a week it did not see. It scores a board only while it beats a coin there and the props it rates higher land more often than the rest. On pro football the DPB formula replaces it: workload, efficiency, opponent and who is out, turned into a chance and calibrated. Until the formula passes the same kind of test against the books' own lines, its number is marked provisional and does not set the order of the board.
On a ticket
Two or more props read as one thing: each leg's Signal multiplied, then scaled by how often those legs have actually landed together. While the Signal is provisional, so is the ticket's number: an estimate of how often all the legs land, not odds and not a payout. How it is counted.
What it is not
- Not validated on pro football yet. The formula has not beaten the books' lines on a week it never saw. Until it does, its number is a provisional estimate and the board ranks by hit rate. The record says when that changes.
- Not a pick. What to do with any of these numbers is yours.
- Not odds or a payout. A 64 is an estimate of how often, not a price, and a ticket's number is not what it would pay.
- Not a black box. Each prop page shows the formula's working: the baseline, who is out, the matchup, and the expected stat.
Hit rate, sample and Signal, side by side on every row.
Open a row for the games behind the count, and a prop page for the formula's working.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made