Insights · NFL · venue
Does playing at home actually change a prop?
Almost not at all. Across every player on tonight's board, the home group cleared its numbers 49% of the time and the road group 48% — a gap of 1 point. Home advantage is real in scorelines. In whether a player beats his own number, it is close to invisible.
- At home49%978/2006272 props
- On the road48%727/1514223 props
This is a whole-board average and it hides individuals: a player who genuinely travels badly is still in there, and his own venue split is on his prop page.
How this was counted
Each player has a venue window: his record against tonight's number in the same home or away spot he is in this week. This pools those windows across every prop on the board, one vote per prop rather than one per book.
The number each player is measured against is the one posted for him tonight, applied to his past games, so the comparison is between players in the same situation rather than between seasons.
Every figure here is a count of games already played. It is not a forecast, and nothing on this page is a recommendation about tonight.
Recomputed with the nightly board, Sep 7, 10:39 AM ET. Game logs from nflverse, CC BY 4.0.