Trends · NFL · venue

Does playing at home actually change a prop?

Almost not at all. Across every player on this week's board, the home group cleared its numbers 46% of the time and the road group 45% — a gap of 0 points. Home advantage is real in scorelines. In whether a player beats his own number, it is close to invisible.

0pts

home vs road

  • At home46%1023/2240257 props
  • On the road45%1147/2535294 props

This is a whole-board average and it hides individuals: a player who genuinely travels badly is still in there, and his own venue split is on his prop page.

How this was counted

Each player has a venue window: his record against this week's number in the same home or away spot he is in this week. This pools those windows across every prop on the board, one vote per prop rather than one per book.

The number each player is measured against is the one posted for him this week, applied to his past games, so the comparison is between players in the same situation rather than between seasons.

Every figure here is a count of games already played. It is not a forecast, and nothing on this page is a recommendation about this week's games.

Recomputed with the nightly board, Oct 22, 3:31 PM ET. Game logs from nflverse, CC BY 4.0.