Trends · NFL · line movement
When a book moves a number, does it know something?
The groups are 14 points apart. A number that moved is a book changing its mind in public; whether the player then obliged is a question about the book, not about him.
14pts
moved vs unmoved
- Number moved down57%294/51253 props
- Number never moved48%2021/4209446 props
- Number moved up43%224/52155 props
Early in a week almost nothing has moved, so the honest answer is usually “not enough moves to tell”. That is the answer, rather than a reason to hide the page.
How this was counted
A prop is counted as moved when the number posted for it differs from the first number seen for that game. Movement is carried from one nightly board to the next, so it is a change between snapshots rather than an intraday feed — a line that moved and moved back within a day looks unmoved here.
Each group is then measured on the same thing every rate on the site measures: how often the player cleared the number he is being offered this week, over his last ten games.
Every figure here is a count of games already played. It is not a forecast, and nothing on this page is a recommendation about this week's games.
Recomputed with the nightly board, Oct 22, 3:31 PM ET. Game logs from nflverse, CC BY 4.0.