Trends · NFL · same-team combos · 2025 and 2026 to date
When the QB hits, who hits with him?
Across 730 team-games, a quarterback clearing his passing-yards number lifts his wide receivers' hit rate from 38% to 61% and his tight ends' from 40% to 62%. His running back's receiving numbers rise with him too. His running back's rushing numbers do not: they sit near independent and lean slightly the other way. Whether any of that is worth betting is not a question this page answers; it shows what happened.
+22pts
tight ends, on the QB's good days
League-wide, by position and stat
Each player's own median across all the games we hold is his number. Lift is the skill player's hit rate when the QB clears, minus his rate when the QB misses, in percentage points.
Bars to the right of zero mean the skill player cleared his number more often on the QB's good days; left means less often. Hover or focus a bar for the counts.
| Position | Stat | n | Skill clears · QB clears | Skill clears · QB misses | Lift | Both clear | If independent | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wide receiver | Receiving Yards | 2010 | 61.0%665 of 1091 | 38.1%350 of 919 | +22.9 | 33.1% | 27.4% | 1.21 |
| Wide receiver | Receptions | 1563 | 60.6%510 of 841 | 38.6%279 of 722 | +22.0 | 32.6% | 27.2% | 1.20 |
| Tight end | Receiving Yards | 1090 | 61.5%366 of 595 | 40.0%198 of 495 | +21.5 | 33.6% | 28.2% | 1.19 |
| Tight end | Receptions | 808 | 60.5%270 of 446 | 40.6%147 of 362 | +19.9 | 33.4% | 28.5% | 1.17 |
| Running back | Receptions | 899 | 59.5%284 of 477 | 47.4%200 of 422 | +12.1 | 31.6% | 28.6% | 1.11 |
| Running back | Receiving Yards | 1147 | 59.0%360 of 610 | 47.9%257 of 537 | +11.2 | 31.4% | 28.6% | 1.10 |
| Running back | Rush + Rec Yards | 1291 | 53.5%364 of 681 | 48.2%294 of 610 | +5.3 | 28.2% | 26.9% | 1.05 |
| Running back | Carries | 1162 | 50.0%305 of 610 | 51.8%286 of 552 | -1.8 | 26.2% | 26.7% | 0.98 |
| Running back | Rushing Yards | 1285 | 50.2%339 of 675 | 52.1%318 of 610 | -1.9 | 26.4% | 26.9% | 0.98 |
“Both clear” is how often the two-leg combo would have hit; “if independent” is what it would be if the two outcomes had nothing to do with each other. The ratio between them is the whole story for a same-team pair: 1.23 means the receiver combo landed 23% more often than independence predicts.
How this was counted, and what it cannot tell you
- Games
- 7,196 player-games from nflverse weekly stats, regular season 2025 plus 2026 to date. Positions are nflverse's; players with no listed position were left out.
- The quarterback
- One per team-game: the passer with the most attempts, and at least ten. Backups in garbage time are not a quarterback's good day.
- “His number”
- Each player's own median for that stat across his games, requiring at least 8. Past lines are not stored, and by construction a median makes each player's base rate about 50%, so any lift is co-movement and nothing else. On today's board, the actual posted line is used instead, applied to every past game.
- Hits and pushes
- A hit is strictly above the number. A game where either player landed exactly on his number is excluded, the way a push is settled.
- Lift
- P(skill hits | QB hits) minus P(skill hits | QB misses). Both halves are shown as counts on every row, because “100% vs 0%” on eight games is four and four.
What it cannot tell you
These are past co-occurrences, not forecasts. A quarterback's good day and his receiver's are one event seen twice, not a cause and an effect. Lines move week to week, so today's line applied to last October is an approximation. And the pick'em apps already know that same-team legs move together, which is why several of them restrict or discount correlated entries; a rate on this page is not a payout.
Nothing here is a recommendation. It is the answer to one question, stated as counts.
Refreshed Oct 22, 3:31 PM ET, with the nightly board. Game logs from nflverse, CC BY 4.0.