A number is only worth its record.
When the NFL board carries a Signal, it comes from one fixed formula: tonight's workload and matchup, adjusted by effects measured from settled games, turned into a chance the prop lands. Every night it is replayed over every settled prop and judged on a week it never saw. It goes on the board only if it beats a coin, and beats what the board would otherwise show. This page is that judgement, unedited.
Tonight
formula-1: not on the board
On the held-out week the formula scored 0.723 log loss against a coin's 0.693: no better than a coin.
Judged Sep 27, 11:03 AM ET · 1,282 real props and 11,415 from last season replayed.
The week it never saw
Week of 2026-09-15: 637 props the books actually posted, priced the morning of each game. Lower log loss is better; a coin scores 0.693.
| Source | Props | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| The formula | 637 | 0.723 |
| A coin | 637 | 0.693 |
| The Signal the board published, same props | 45 | 0.747 (formula 0.790) |
Where it was surer, it landed on its side 51% of the time; where it was less sure, 55%.
What it said, and what landed
| It said over | Props | Average said | Landed over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 5 | 6% | 60% |
| 10-20% | 10 | 16% | 60% |
| 20-30% | 32 | 27% | 50% |
| 30-40% | 121 | 36% | 43% |
| 40-50% | 313 | 45% | 46% |
| 50-60% | 127 | 53% | 50% |
| 60-70% | 21 | 64% | 38% |
| 70-80% | 7 | 74% | 43% |
| 80-90% | 1 | 83% | 100% |
A calibrated formula lands about as often as it says. Bins with a handful of props swing.
The effects it runs on
Counted from settled games before 2026-09-27. An effect measured on fewer than ten cases is not used.
| Effect | Measured | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| Lead back picks up a missing back's carries | 67% | 36 |
| Other backs pick up a missing back's carries | 1% | 21 |
| Top receiver picks up a missing receiver's targets | 23% | 63 |
| Other receivers pick up a missing receiver's targets | 17% | 100 |
| Top tight end picks up a missing tight end's targets | 20% | 15 |
| Back's yards per carry with the heavier load | ×1.03 | 36 |
| Receivers' targets with the passer out | ×0.97 | 123 |
| Tight ends' targets with the passer out | ×1.23 | 54 |
| Back's carries when playing while Questionable | ×0.81 | 42 |
| Receiver's targets when playing while Questionable | ×0.90 | 78 |
Plus a yards-allowed factor for every defence against every position, and each position's game-to-game spread. How they combine is on the Signal page.
The history-based fits
- Pro football · off · On the held-out week the fit scored 0.693 log loss against a coin's 0.693: no better than a coin, so no Signal.
- College football · on the board · On the held-out week the fit scored 0.678 log loss against a coin's 0.693, and the props it rated higher landed 61% against 53% for the rest.
Every judgement
- Sep 27, 11:03 AM ETformula-1off637 props · 0.723
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