A number is only worth its record.
When the NFL board carries a Signal, it comes from one fixed formula: this week's workload and matchup, adjusted by effects measured from settled games, turned into a chance the prop lands. Every night it is replayed over every settled prop and judged on a week it never saw. Until it beats a coin, and beats what the board would otherwise show, its number is marked provisional. This page is that judgement, unedited.
This week
formula-2: on the board, provisional: it has not passed its gate
On the held-out week the formula scored 0.696 log loss against a coin's 0.693: no better than a coin.
Judged Nov 12, 4:04 AM ET · 4,329 real props and 11,415 from last season replayed.
The week it never saw
Week of 2026-11-03: 716 props the books actually posted, priced the morning of each game. Lower log loss is better; a coin scores 0.693.
| Source | Props | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| The formula | 716 | 0.696 |
| A coin | 716 | 0.693 |
| The Signal the board published, same props | 664 | 0.693 (formula 0.696) |
Where it was surer, it landed on its side 58% of the time; where it was less sure, 48%.
What it said, and what landed
| It said over | Props | Average said | Landed over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 6 | 5% | 33% |
| 10-20% | 3 | 17% | 33% |
| 20-30% | 4 | 29% | 75% |
| 30-40% | 45 | 36% | 56% |
| 40-50% | 558 | 46% | 46% |
| 50-60% | 98 | 52% | 53% |
| 60-70% | 2 | 62% | 0% |
A calibrated formula lands about as often as it says. Bins with a handful of props swing.
The effects it runs on
Counted from settled games before 2026-11-12. An effect measured on fewer than ten cases is not used.
| Effect | Measured | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| Lead back picks up a missing back's carries | 56% | 62 |
| Other backs pick up a missing back's carries | 8% | 28 |
| Top receiver picks up a missing receiver's targets | 21% | 91 |
| Other receivers pick up a missing receiver's targets | 17% | 141 |
| Top tight end picks up a missing tight end's targets | 19% | 16 |
| Back's yards per carry with the heavier load | ×0.96 | 62 |
| Receivers' targets with the passer out | ×1.02 | 171 |
| Tight ends' targets with the passer out | ×1.14 | 73 |
| Back's carries when playing while Questionable | ×0.85 | 61 |
| Receiver's targets when playing while Questionable | ×0.92 | 111 |
| Back's carries when moved up the depth chart | ×1.28 | 118 |
| Back's carries when moved down the depth chart | ×0.71 | 83 |
| Receiver's targets when moved up the depth chart | ×1.05 | 173 |
| Receiver's targets when moved down the depth chart | ×0.84 | 109 |
Plus a yards-allowed factor for every defence against every position, and each position's game-to-game spread. How they combine is on the Signal page.
The history-based fits
- Pro football · off · On the held-out week the fit scored 0.694 log loss against a coin's 0.693: no better than a coin, so no Signal.
Every judgement
- Nov 12, 4:04 AM ETformula-2off716 props · 0.696
- Nov 11, 4:05 AM ETformula-2off716 props · 0.695
- Nov 10, 4:03 AM ETformula-2off716 props · 0.695
- Nov 9, 4:05 AM ETformula-2off615 props · 0.689
- Nov 8, 4:04 AM ETformula-2off690 props · 0.698
- Nov 7, 4:04 AM ETformula-2off690 props · 0.698
- Nov 6, 4:04 AM ETformula-2off690 props · 0.698
- Nov 5, 4:04 AM ETformula-2off690 props · 0.698
- Nov 4, 4:05 AM ETformula-2off690 props · 0.697
- Nov 3, 4:04 AM ETformula-2off690 props · 0.697
- Nov 2, 4:05 AM ETformula-2off639 props · 0.698
- Nov 1, 4:03 AM ETformula-2off704 props · 0.696
- Oct 31, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off704 props · 0.696
- Oct 30, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off704 props · 0.696
- Oct 29, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off704 props · 0.696
- Oct 28, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off704 props · 0.696
- Oct 27, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off704 props · 0.696
- Oct 26, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off653 props · 0.697
- Oct 25, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off695 props · 0.709
- Oct 24, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off695 props · 0.709
- Oct 23, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off695 props · 0.709
- Oct 22, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off695 props · 0.709
- Oct 21, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off695 props · 0.709
- Oct 20, 5:03 AM ETformula-2off695 props · 0.709
- Oct 19, 8:04 PM ETformula-2off640 props · 0.709
- Oct 19, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off640 props · 0.709
- Oct 18, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off737 props · 0.702
- Oct 17, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off737 props · 0.702
- Oct 16, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off737 props · 0.702
- Oct 15, 5:02 AM ETformula-2off737 props · 0.702
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