Two props are not two Signals. They are one ticket.
A ticket only pays when every leg lands, and legs from the same game are not strangers: a quarterback's big day carries his receiver, or trades one off against the other. The Signal on a ticket starts from each leg's own number and then asks the only question that matters — how often have these particular legs actually landed together?
Three steps, one number
1Each leg brings its Signal
The number on its row: the chance that side lands — from the DPB formula on pro football, provisional until it beats the books' lines. Jared Goff 60, Sam LaPorta 50.
2Multiplied: strangers
If the two had nothing to do with each other, both landing is one rate times the other. 60 × 50 comes to 30. That is the floor for legs with no shared record, and it is deliberately modest.
3Then the record
Every week both men played is a settled fact: did both clear? 7 of 12 here — 1.5 times what strangers would manage. Twelve weeks is still short, so that is weighed as 1.3, and the product scaled by it is the ticket's Signal: 39 — never above the least likely leg, here 50.
Why not just multiply?
Because multiplying assumes the legs are strangers, and the whole point of a pairing is that they are not. Two ninety-percent legs that miss on the same bad weeks are worse together than a ninety and an eighty that never do. The record is the only thing that knows which is which, so it gets the last word. When the legs travel together the ticket's Signal rises above the product; when they trade off, it falls below it. Both directions are shown, on every card, as “if unrelated” beside the counted rate.
However well they travel together, the ticket's Signal is never above the least likely leg: every leg landing can never be likelier than the weakest one landing. A 51 and a 45 read together are at most 45, whatever the record says. Each leg's number is for the side the ticket takes — take the under on a row that leans over and the leg brings the rest of the hundred, not the over's number.
When the record is thin
Fewer than 8 weeks in which every leg played and nothing pushed is a handful wearing a percentage, so the ticket falls back to the product — the strangers' number — and the card says thin. Past that, a short record still only gets part of its say: it is weighed as if 8 more weeks had been counted in which the legs behaved like strangers, so at 8 weeks the record and the product count equally, and a few lucky Sundays cannot carry a ticket on their own. A ticket with a record always ranks above one without, whatever the numbers say. And a leg with no Signal of its own — too few games, or a prop that leans nowhere — leaves the ticket without one rather than borrowing a number it has not earned.
Where you will see it
Pairings — duos and trios →
A quarterback's number with a teammate's, or two teammates', priced on one book. The Signal sits beside the counted co-hit rate, and the list leads with it.
Quick Pick Optimizer →
Pick the games and the size; the pool leads with each leg's Signal, every ticket is scored on its shared record, and the one you build shows its Signal under the ring.
Any ticket you build →
Add sides from any board, any game, any book. Your ticket reads them as one ticket the same way — each leg's Signal, the strangers' number, the shared record — and shows the result beside the count.
What it is not
- Not odds or a payout. A 39 is a model's estimate of how often all the legs land: the legs' Signals multiplied, scaled by their shared record, and never above the least likely leg. It is provisional while the Signal is, and it is not what the ticket pays or the price an app would offer.
- Not a pick. It orders the tickets. Which one to take, and whether to take any, is yours.
- Not hidden. The legs' Signals, the shared weeks and the co-hit count are on every card, so the arithmetic can be checked against the sample beside it.
Start from a prop's Signal, or from a ticket.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made