The DPB Signal · on a ticket

Two props are not two Signals. They are one ticket.

A ticket only pays when every leg lands, and legs from the same game are not strangers: a quarterback's big day carries his receiver, or trades one off against the other. The Signal on a ticket starts from each leg's own number and then asks the only question that matters — how often have these particular legs actually landed together?

Three steps, one number

Jared GoffCompletions o23.560Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards o42.550Multipliedwhat strangers would do30The shared record7 of 12 weeks both landed1.5× what strangers wouldTICKET45of 10060 × 50 → 30 if unrelated · × 1.5 from the record → 45
Illustrative numbers. The legs' Signals are the ones on their rows; the shared record is counted from the weeks both men played, pushes left out.

  1. 1Each leg brings its Signal

    The number on its row: how much clean history points the way it leans, or — once a board's fit has earned its place — how often props like it landed. Jared Goff 60, Sam LaPorta 50.

  2. 2Multiplied: strangers

    If the two had nothing to do with each other, both landing is one rate times the other. 60 × 50 comes to 30. That is the floor for legs with no shared record, and it is deliberately modest.

  3. 3Then the record

    Every week both men played is a settled fact: did both clear? 7 of 12 here — 1.5 times what strangers would manage. The ticket's Signal is the product scaled by that: 45.

Why not just multiply?

Because multiplying assumes the legs are strangers, and the whole point of a pairing is that they are not. Two ninety-percent legs that miss on the same bad weeks are worse together than a ninety and an eighty that never do. The record is the only thing that knows which is which, so it gets the last word. When the legs travel together the ticket's Signal rises above the product; when they trade off, it falls below it. Both directions are shown, on every card, as “if unrelated” beside the counted rate.

When the record is thin

Fewer than 8 weeks in which every leg played and nothing pushed is a handful wearing a percentage, so the ticket falls back to the product — the strangers' number — and the card says thin. A ticket with a record always ranks above one without, whatever the numbers say. And a leg with no Signal of its own — too few games, or a prop that leans nowhere — leaves the ticket without one rather than borrowing a number it has not earned.

Where you will see it

Pairings — duos and trios →

A quarterback's number with a teammate's, or two teammates', priced on one book. The Signal sits beside the counted co-hit rate, and the list leads with it.

Quick Pick Optimizer →

Pick the games and the size; the pool leads with each leg's Signal, every ticket is scored on its shared record, and the one you build shows its Signal under the ring.

Any ticket you build →

Add sides from any board, any game, any book. Your ticket reads them as one ticket the same way — each leg's Signal, the strangers' number, the shared record — and shows the result beside the count.

What it is not

  • Not odds. A 45 does not mean the ticket cashes 45 percent of the time. It means these legs carry more shared evidence than a 30 would.
  • Not a pick. It orders the tickets. Which one to take, and whether to take any, is yours.
  • Not hidden. The legs' Signals, the shared weeks and the co-hit count are on every card, so the arithmetic can be checked against the sample beside it.

Start from a prop's Signal, or from a ticket.

How a single prop's Signal is built · tonight's pairings

Build a ticket →

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made