← NFL board3 straight over
Corey Kiner
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETCarries · 3.5 · median of 2 books ·
56%over5 / 9 · last 10
5 / 9Cleared the number in 5 of 9 games, 1 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.2 a game recently
Expected carries: 6.2 against 3.5 · over 54%, under 46%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 3 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 11 over | +7.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% over | +1.3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
3.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 11 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 6 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 6 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 6 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 2 | under |