Elijah Mitchell

PHI vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rush + Rec Yards · 33.5 ·

44Signal · over 33.567% · 2 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance

2 / 3

Underdog 33.5 ·

DeVonta Smith WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 33% of PHI's targets this season, 10.3 a game over 4.
Dontayvion Wicks WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 17% of PHI's targets this season, 5.3 a game over 6.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

carries: 5.6 a game recently
targets: 4.2 a game recently
vs NYG · ×1.08 yds per carry

Expected rush + rec yards: 29.8 yds against 33.5 · over 44%, under 56%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 33.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Nov 1, 2026

Worst miss -33

Each game against 33.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-11-16	DEN	0 under	−33.5
2026-10-26	DAL	34 over	+0.5
2026-11-01	WAS	37 over	+3.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	2 / 3	67% over	-10
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

33.5Underdog· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 33.5
2026-11-01	@ WAS	37	over
2026-10-26	vs DAL	34	over
2025-11-16	@ DEN	0	under