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Treylon Burks
WAS vs PHI · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 1.5 · median of 5 books ·
52Signal · under 1.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 3.4 a game recently → 3.6 this game
- WR3 on the depth chart (usually WR4+) · ×1.07 targets
Expected receptions: 1.9 against 1.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | MIN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NYG | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | PHI | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DAL | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PHI | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | DAL | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SEA | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | IND | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYG | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | SF | 4 over | +2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.55 books, no line disagreementFD · HR · DK · ESPN · FL
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | @ SF | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs NYG | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs IND | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs SEA | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DAL | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-20 | vs PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NYG | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | @ MIN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs DET | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs SEA | 1 | under |