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Brock Purdy
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing Yards · 240.5 · median of 9 books ·
47Signal · over 240.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 28.5 a game recently
Expected passing yards: 243.3 yds against 240.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 240.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -113| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 295 over | +54.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 295 over | +54.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 303 over | +62.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 127 under | −113.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 205 under | −35.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 287 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 297 over | +56.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 218 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 189 under | −51.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 264 over | +23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
9 books · 4 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 238.5 · best price BB, PX2 -114
- Bally Bet 238.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- betPARX 238.5 -114 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- BetRivers 238.5 -115 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 239.5 -120
- FanDuel 240.5 -114
- PrizePicks 240.5
- Hard Rock Bet 241.5 -115
- Fliff 241.5 -120
- DraftKings 242.5 -111
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 243.5 to 242.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 240.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 264 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 189 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 218 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 297 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 287 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 205 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 127 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 303 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 295 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 295 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 168 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 193 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | 200 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 309 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 277 | over |