← NFL board
Brock Purdy
SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 19.5 at Underdog ·
48Signal · over 19.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.0 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 26.0 yds against 19.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 19.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026
Worst miss -13| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | TEN | 44 over | +24.5 |
| 2025-12-22 | IND | 11 under | −8.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CHI | 28 over | +8.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | SEA | 21 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | LA | 29 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | MIA | 30 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | ARI | 34 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | DEN | 29 over | +9.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | SEA | 6 under | −13.5 |
| 2026-10-19 | WAS | 28 over | +8.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 18.5
- DraftKings 18.5 -114 (easiest number)
- ESPN Bet 19.5 -105
- Hard Rock Bet 19.5 -110
- betPARX 19.5 -114
- FanDuel 19.5 -114
- BetRivers 19.5 -115
- Fliff 19.5 -115
- Bally Bet 19.5 -120
- PrizePicks 19.5
- Underdog 19.5
Line movement
- FliffMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 18.5 to 19.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | vs WAS | 28 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ SEA | 6 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs DEN | 29 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs ARI | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs MIA | 30 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | @ LA | 29 | over |
| 2026-01-03 | vs SEA | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs CHI | 28 | over |
| 2025-12-22 | @ IND | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs TEN | 44 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CLE | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-24 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ ARI | -7 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs JAX | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ SEA | 17 | under |