Cam Skattebo

NYG @ HOU · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 4.5 · median of 2 books ·

55Signal · over 4.590% · 9 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

9 / 10

4 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 2.4 a game recently
vs HOU · ×0.99 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 15.7 yds against 4.5 · over 55%, under 45%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 4.5 · Sep 28, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -4

Each game against 4.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-09-28	LAC	11 over	+6.5
2025-10-05	NO	45 over	+40.5
2025-10-09	PHI	12 over	+7.5
2025-10-19	DEN	34 over	+29.5
2025-10-26	PHI	18 over	+13.5
2026-09-13	DAL	0 under	−4.5
2026-09-21	LA	19 over	+14.5
2026-09-27	TEN	40 over	+35.5
2026-10-04	ARI	8 over	+3.5
2026-10-11	WAS	12 over	+7.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	9 / 10	90% over	+15
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 90% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

4.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 4.5
2026-10-11	@ WAS	12	over
2026-10-04	vs ARI	8	over
2026-09-27	vs TEN	40	over
2026-09-21	@ LA	19	over
2026-09-13	vs DAL	0	under
2025-10-26	@ PHI	18	over
2025-10-19	@ DEN	34	over
2025-10-09	vs PHI	12	over
2025-10-05	@ NO	45	over
2025-09-28	vs LAC	11	over
2025-09-21	vs KC	61	over
2025-09-14	@ DAL	14	over
2025-09-07	@ WAS	12	over