Charlie Kolar

LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receptions · 2.5 at ESPN Bet ·

52Signal · under 2.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

3 / 10

3 straight over

How the formula reads this game

targets: 4.3 a game recently

Expected receptions: 3.0 against 2.5 · over 48%, under 52%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.

Last 10 games against 2.5 · Oct 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -0.5 on the under

Each game against 2.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-10-30	MIA	2 under	−0.5
2025-11-09	MIN	1 under	−1.5
2025-11-16	CLE	0 under	−2.5
2025-11-27	CIN	1 under	−1.5
2025-12-07	PIT	1 under	−1.5
2025-12-21	NE	1 under	−1.5
2025-12-27	GB	0 under	−2.5
2026-09-20	LV	3 over	+0.5
2026-10-11	DEN	3 over	+0.5
2026-10-18	KC	3 over	+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	7 / 10	70% under	+1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

2.58 books, no line disagreementMGM · ESPN · DK · HR · FD · PX2 · BR · BB

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 2.5
2026-10-18	@ KC	3	over
2026-10-11	vs DEN	3	over
2026-09-20	vs LV	3	over
2025-12-27	@ GB	0	under
2025-12-21	vs NE	1	under
2025-12-07	vs PIT	1	under
2025-11-27	vs CIN	1	under
2025-11-16	@ CLE	0	under
2025-11-09	@ MIN	1	under
2025-10-30	@ MIA	2	under
2025-10-26	vs CHI	1	under
2025-10-12	vs LA	0	under
2025-10-05	vs HOU	1	under
2025-09-22	vs DET	2	under