← NFL board4 straight over
Dak Prescott
DAL @ PHI · Mon 8:15 PM ETPass Attempts · 37 at PrizePicks ·
50Signal · over 3756% · 5 / 9 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 9Cleared the number in 5 of 9 games, 1 push
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 41.0 a game recently
Expected pass attempts: 41.0 against 37 · over 50%, under 50% (if it doesn't land exactly on 37)
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 37 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -26| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | MIN | 38 over | +1.0 |
| 2025-12-21 | LAC | 30 under | −7.0 |
| 2025-12-25 | WAS | 37 push | +0.0 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYG | 11 under | −26.0 |
| 2026-09-13 | NYG | 34 under | −3.0 |
| 2026-09-20 | WAS | 31 under | −6.0 |
| 2026-09-27 | BAL | 40 over | +3.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | HOU | 45 over | +8.0 |
| 2026-10-08 | TB | 42 over | +5.0 |
| 2026-10-18 | GB | 54 over | +17.0 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 9 | 56% over | -0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 56% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 36.5 · best price HR -120
- Hard Rock Bet 36.5 -120 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Fliff 36.5 -130 (easiest number)
- Fanatics 36.5 -135 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 37
- betPARX 37.5 +100
- DraftKings 37.5 -102
- BetMGM 37.5 -105
- Bally Bet 37.5 -106
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 34.5 to 37
- BetMGMMoved from 36.5 to 37.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 36.5 to 37.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 37 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ GB | 54 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | vs TB | 42 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ HOU | 45 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs BAL | 40 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs WAS | 31 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ NYG | 34 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ NYG | 11 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | @ WAS | 37 | push |
| 2025-12-21 | vs LAC | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs MIN | 38 | over |
| 2025-12-04 | @ DET | 47 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs KC | 39 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PHI | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | @ LV | 33 | under |
| 2025-11-03 | vs ARI | 39 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ DEN | 31 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs WAS | 30 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | @ CAR | 34 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ NYJ | 29 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs GB | 40 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ CHI | 40 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs NYG | 52 | over |
| 2025-09-04 | @ PHI | 34 | under |