Dameon Pierce

PHI vs DAL · Mon 8:15 PM ET

Receptions · 0.5 · median of 2 books ·

54Signal · under 0.560% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · the formula's chance

2 / 5

DeVonta Smith WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 33% of PHI's targets this season, 10.3 a game over 4.
Dontayvion Wicks WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 17% of PHI's targets this season, 5.3 a game over 6.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

targets: 3.0 a game recently

Expected receptions: 1.7 against 0.5 · over 54%, under 46%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -3.5 on the under

Each game against 0.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-09-07	LA	0 under	−0.5
2025-10-05	BAL	0 under	−0.5
2026-01-04	LV	0 under	−0.5
2026-10-11	JAX	2 over	+1.5
2026-10-18	CAR	4 over	+3.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	3 / 5	60% under	-0.7
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

0.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 0.5
2026-10-18	vs CAR	4	over
2026-10-11	@ JAX	2	over
2026-01-04	@ LV	0	under
2025-10-05	@ BAL	0	under
2025-09-07	@ LA	0	under