← NFL board
Deshaun Watson
CLE @ NO · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 5.5 at PrizePicks ·
49Signal · over 5.575% · 6 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 8Cleared the number in 6 of 8 games, 2 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 6.4 a game recently
Expected carries: 6.4 against 5.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 8 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -2.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | JAX | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TB | 7 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CAR | 11 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT | 7 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYJ | 6 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | TEN | 3 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | PIT | 3 under | −2.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 8 | 75% over | +0.9 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 75% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
5.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ PIT | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-25 | @ TEN | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs BAL | 8 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NYJ | 6 | over |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PIT | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CAR | 11 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TB | 7 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ JAX | 6 | over |