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Deshaun Watson
CLE @ NO · Sun 1:00 PM ETCompletions · 21.5 at Underdog ·
55Signal · under 21.550% · 4 / 8 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 8Cleared the number in 4 of 8 games, 2 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 31.1 a game recently
Expected completions: 20.4 against 21.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 8 this season.
Last 10 games against 21.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -6.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | JAX | 16 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TB | 24 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | CAR | 16 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-01 | PIT | 24 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NYJ | 15 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | BAL | 16 under | −5.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | TEN | 25 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | PIT | 27 over | +5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 8 | 50% | -1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
21.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 21.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ PIT | 27 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ TEN | 25 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs BAL | 16 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ NYJ | 15 | under |
| 2026-10-01 | vs PIT | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs CAR | 16 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TB | 24 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ JAX | 16 | under |