Deshaun Watson

CLE @ PIT · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 23.5 at PrizePicks · median 25.5 ·

48Signal · over 23.557% · 4 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 7

How the formula reads this game

carries: 6.9 a game recently

Expected rushing yards: 30.7 yds against 23.5 · over 48%, under 52%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.

Last 10 games against 23.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026

Worst miss -4

Each game against 23.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2026-09-13	JAX	38 over	+14.5
2026-09-20	TB	22 under	−1.5
2026-09-27	CAR	45 over	+21.5
2026-10-01	PIT	22 under	−1.5
2026-10-11	NYJ	40 over	+16.5
2026-10-18	BAL	29 over	+5.5
2026-10-25	TEN	19 under	−4.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	4 / 7	57% over	+7
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 57% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 23.5

Line movement

FliffMoved from 24.5 to 25.5
DraftKingsMoved from 25.5 to 26.5

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 23.5
2026-10-25	@ TEN	19	under
2026-10-18	vs BAL	29	over
2026-10-11	@ NYJ	40	over
2026-10-01	vs PIT	22	under
2026-09-27	vs CAR	45	over
2026-09-20	@ TB	22	under
2026-09-13	@ JAX	38	over