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Drake Maye
NE @ CHI · Thu 8:15 PM ETRushing Yards · 28.5 · median of 12 books ·
60%under6 / 10 · last 10
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 5.7 a game recently
Expected rushing yards: 30.8 yds against 28.5 · over 46%, under 54%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 28.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -25 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF | 43 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | BAL | 25 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 22 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 41 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 47 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | 17 under | −11.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 18 under | −10.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 54 over | +25.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | LV | 25 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 24 under | −4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | -3 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
12 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 29.5
- FanDuel 27.5
- betPARX 27.5
- BetRivers 27.5
- Bally Bet 27.5
- DraftKings 28.5
- Hard Rock Bet 28.5
- Fliff 28.5
- DK Pick6 28.5
- PrizePicks 28.5
- ESPN Bet 29.5 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 29.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 29.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- Bally BetMoved from 28.5 to 27.5
- betPARXMoved from 28.5 to 27.5
- BetRiversMoved from 28.5 to 27.5
- FanDuelMoved from 29.5 to 27.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 29.5 to 28.5
- FliffMoved from 29.5 to 28.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 29.5 to 28.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 29.5 to 28.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 29.5 to 28.5
- BetMGMMoved from 28.5 to 29.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 28.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 24 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs LV | 25 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 54 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 18 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | 17 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 47 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 41 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | 25 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs BUF | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-01 | vs NYG | 12 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ CIN | 22 | under |
| 2025-11-13 | vs NYJ | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ TB | 13 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs ATL | 20 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CLE | 50 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ TEN | 62 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ NO | 28 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ BUF | 12 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CAR | 11 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs PIT | 45 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ MIA | 31 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs LV | 11 | under |