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A.J. Brown
NE @ MIA · Sun 4:25 PM ETQuestionableReceiving Yards · 50.5 ·
61Signal · over 50.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
PrizePicks 50.5 ·
Listed questionable with a ankle injury on the week 8 report, did not practice. Everything below is history, and history is a weaker guide when a player is listed. Report checked Oct 31, 5:01 AM ET.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.7 a game recently → 6.0 this game
- Questionable · ×0.91 targets
- vs MIA · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 31.8 yds against 50.5 · over 39%, under 61%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 50.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 22, 2026
Worst miss -24| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | DET | 49 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | DAL | 110 over | +59.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | CHI | 132 over | +81.5 |
| 2025-12-08 | LAC | 100 over | +49.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LV | 41 under | −9.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | WAS | 95 over | +44.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | BUF | 68 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-09-09 | SEA | 26 under | −24.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NYJ | 27 under | −23.5 |
| 2026-10-22 | CHI | 48 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | +19 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
50.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 64.5 to 50.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 50.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | @ CHI | 48 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | vs NYJ | 27 | under |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ BUF | 68 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ WAS | 95 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LV | 41 | under |
| 2025-12-08 | @ LAC | 100 | over |
| 2025-11-28 | vs CHI | 132 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ DAL | 110 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs DET | 49 | under |
| 2025-11-10 | @ GB | 13 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ MIN | 121 | over |
| 2025-10-09 | @ NYG | 80 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs DEN | 43 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ TB | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs LA | 109 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ KC | 27 | under |
| 2025-09-04 | vs DAL | 8 | under |