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Durham Smythe
BAL vs TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 5.5 · median of 2 books ·
64Signal · under 5.567% · 4 / 6 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 6Cleared the number in 2 of 6 games, 4 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.3 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 4.1 yds against 5.5 · over 36%, under 64%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 5.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Sep 20, 2026
Worst miss -5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-11-16 | MIN | 8 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | PIT | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | GB | 2 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | SF | 11 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 4 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 0 under | −5.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 4 / 6 | 67% under | +1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Book Range
5.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 5.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ SF | 11 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ GB | 2 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs PIT | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ MIN | 8 | over |