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Efton Chism III
NE vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 16.5 at Fliff ·
51Signal · over 16.560% · 3 / 5 · last 10 · props like this landed
3 / 5Cleared the number in 3 of 5 games, 5 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.3 a game recently
Expected receiving yards: 13.7 yds against 16.5
No probability is shown: the formula has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Dec 28, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -18| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2025-12-28 | NYJ | 40 over | +23.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | MIA | 35 over | +18.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | PIT | -2 under | −18.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | JAX | 1 under | −15.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | BUF | 42 over | +25.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 5 | 60% over | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Book Range
16.53 books, no line disagreementFD · FL · PP· best price at 16.5: FD -114
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | @ BUF | 42 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ JAX | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | -2 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | 35 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | 40 | over |