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Elijah Moore
PHI vs NYG · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 4.5 at Underdog ·
62Signal · over 4.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
- DeVonta Smith WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 33% of PHI's targets this season, 10.3 a game over 4.
- Dontayvion Wicks WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 17% of PHI's targets this season, 5.3 a game over 6.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 2.0 a game recently → 4.5 this game
- Smith out · +1.6 targets (16% of his 10)
- Wicks out · +0.8 targets (16% of his 5.3)
- vs NYG · ×0.99 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.03 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 20.0 yds against 4.5 · over 62%, under 38%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Sep 14, 2025 – Oct 26, 2026
Worst miss -7| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | NYJ | 31 over | +26.5 |
| 2025-09-18 | MIA | 30 over | +25.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | NO | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-10-13 | ATL | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | CAR | 14 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-11-02 | KC | 28 over | +23.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | MIA | 9 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-11-20 | HOU | -3 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-26 | DAL | 16 over | +11.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
4.52 books, no line disagreementPP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | vs DAL | 16 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CAR | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-20 | @ HOU | -3 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs KC | 28 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 14 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-18 | vs MIA | 30 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 31 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 3 | under |