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Jordan Addison
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 43.5 at Fliff ·
56Signal · under 43.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.5 a game recently
- vs IND · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 41.1 yds against 43.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 43.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026
Worst miss -46 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 36 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 62 over | +18.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 66 over | +22.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 26 under | −17.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DET | 0 under | −43.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | GB | 8 under | −35.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 0 under | −43.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI | 21 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 90 over | +46.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIA | 52 over | +8.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 44.5
- betPARX 43.5
- BetRivers 43.5
- FanDuel 43.5
- Hard Rock Bet 43.5
- Bally Bet 43.5
- Fliff 43.5
- PrizePicks 43.5
- ESPN Bet 44.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 44.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 39.5 to 43.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 43.5 to 44.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 43.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs MIA | 52 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 90 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ CHI | 21 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs GB | 8 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 26 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 66 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 36 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 20 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 35 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 48 | over |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 26 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs PHI | 128 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CLE | 41 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ PIT | 114 | over |