Jordan Addison

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receptions · 3.5 at Fliff ·

58Signal · under 3.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 10

How the formula reads this game

targets: 5.5 a game recently

Expected receptions: 2.8 against 3.5 · over 42%, under 58%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.

Last 10 games against 3.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 4, 2026

Worst miss -1.5 on the under

Each game against 3.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-11-30	SEA	5 over	+1.5
2025-12-07	WAS	4 over	+0.5
2025-12-14	DAL	2 under	−1.5
2025-12-21	NYG	2 under	−1.5
2025-12-25	DET	0 under	−3.5
2026-01-04	GB	1 under	−2.5
2026-09-13	GB	0 under	−3.5
2026-09-20	CHI	2 under	−1.5
2026-09-27	TB	5 over	+1.5
2026-10-04	MIA	4 over	+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	6 / 10	60% under	+1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

3.58 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · BB · FD · HR · ESPN · FL · DK

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 3.5
2026-10-04	vs MIA	4	over
2026-09-27	@ TB	5	over
2026-09-20	@ CHI	2	under
2026-09-13	vs GB	0	under
2026-01-04	vs GB	1	under
2025-12-25	vs DET	0	under
2025-12-21	@ NYG	2	under
2025-12-14	@ DAL	2	under
2025-12-07	vs WAS	4	over
2025-11-30	@ SEA	5	over
2025-11-23	@ GB	0	under
2025-11-16	vs CHI	2	under
2025-11-09	vs BAL	3	under
2025-11-02	@ DET	2	under
2025-10-23	@ LAC	3	under
2025-10-19	vs PHI	9	over
2025-10-05	@ CLE	5	over
2025-09-28	@ PIT	4	over