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Justin Jefferson
MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 74.5 at BetMGM · median 72.5 ·
57Signal · under 74.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
4 / 10Cleared the number in 4 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 6.0 a game recently
- vs IND · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 65.1 yds against 74.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 74.5 · Nov 30, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026
Worst miss -26 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | SEA | 4 under | −70.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | WAS | 11 under | −63.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | DAL | 22 under | −52.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NYG | 85 over | +10.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DET | 30 under | −44.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | GB | 101 over | +26.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | GB | 92 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CHI | 55 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | TB | 32 under | −42.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | NO | 79 over | +4.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% under | +23 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 74.5
- ESPN Bet 69.5
- DraftKings 71.5
- betPARX 72.5
- BetRivers 72.5
- FanDuel 72.5
- Hard Rock Bet 72.5
- Bally Bet 72.5
- Fliff 72.5
- BetMGM 74.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 74.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
- ESPN BetMoved from 74.5 to 69.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 74.5 to 71.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 73.5 to 72.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 70.5 to 74.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | @ NO | 79 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ TB | 32 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ CHI | 55 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs GB | 92 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | vs GB | 101 | over |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DET | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NYG | 85 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ DAL | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs WAS | 11 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ SEA | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | @ GB | 48 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | vs CHI | 61 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | vs BAL | 37 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ DET | 47 | under |
| 2025-10-23 | @ LAC | 74 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs PHI | 79 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | @ CLE | 123 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ PIT | 126 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | vs CIN | 75 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | vs ATL | 81 | over |
| 2025-09-08 | @ CHI | 44 | under |