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Makai Lemon
PHI @ WAS · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 41.5 at BetMGM · median 43.5 ·
53Signal · under 41.571% · 5 / 7 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 7Cleared the number in 2 of 7 games, 3 without a result
- DeVonta Smith WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 33% of PHI's targets this season, 10.3 a game over 4.
- Dontayvion Wicks WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 17% of PHI's targets this season, 5.3 a game over 6.
Makai's targets without DeVonta Smith: 7.0 a game (3 games), against 3.8 with him (4).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.1 a game recently → 8.3 this game
- Smith out · +2.1 targets (20% of his 10)
- Wicks out · +1.1 targets (20% of his 5.3)
- vs WAS · ×1.03 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 46.9 yds against 41.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 41.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 26, 2026
Worst miss -25 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | WAS | -5 under | −46.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | TEN | 14 under | −27.5 |
| 2026-09-28 | CHI | 29 under | −12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LA | 27 under | −14.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | JAX | 43 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CAR | 19 under | −22.5 |
| 2026-10-26 | DAL | 67 over | +25.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 7 | 71% under | +14 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 71% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
10 books · 3 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 44.5
- BetMGM 41.5
- FanDuel 43.5
- DraftKings 43.5
- Hard Rock Bet 43.5
- DK Pick6 43.5
- PrizePicks 43.5
- ESPN Bet 44.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 44.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 44.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 44.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 41.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | vs DAL | 67 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | vs CAR | 19 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ JAX | 43 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs LA | 27 | under |
| 2026-09-28 | @ CHI | 29 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ TEN | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | vs WAS | -5 | under |