← NFL board3 straight over
Matthew Hibner
BAL @ ATL · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceiving Yards · 10.5 ·
54Signal · over 10.5100% · 3 / 3 · last 10 · props like this landed
3 / 3Cleared the number in 3 of 3 games, 7 without a result
PrizePicks 10.5 ·
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently → 2.1 this game
- TE2 on the depth chart (usually TE3) · ×1.25 targets
- vs ATL · ×1.02 yds per target
- Heavier load · ×0.82 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 24.3 yds against 10.5
No probability is shown: the formula has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 10.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026
Tightest clearance +3| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 13 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 23 over | +12.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 34 over | +23.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 3 | 100% over | +13 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Book Range
10.5PrizePicks· one book
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 10.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 34 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 23 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 13 | over |