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Zay Flowers
BAL vs CIN · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 69.5 · median of 2 books ·
49Signal · over 69.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 8.4 a game recently
- vs CIN · ×0.99 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 93.6 yds against 69.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 69.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -39| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | PIT | 124 over | +54.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | CIN | 68 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 84 over | +14.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 30 under | −39.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | PIT | 138 over | +68.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 150 over | +80.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 84 over | +14.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 118 over | +48.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 53 under | −16.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 66 under | −3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +22 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
2 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 69.5
- Underdog 69.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 71.5
Line movement
- PrizePicksMoved from 69.5 to 71.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 69.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 66 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 53 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 118 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 84 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 150 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ PIT | 138 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 30 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 84 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ CIN | 68 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 124 | over |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 6 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs NYJ | 58 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 78 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 75 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 64 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 63 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 46 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 72 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 74 | over |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 13 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 75 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 143 | over |