← NFL board3 straight over
Matthew Hibner
BAL @ ATL · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 0.5 · median of 5 books ·
100%over3 / 3 · last 10
3 / 3Cleared the number in 3 of 3 games, 7 without a result
- Lamar Jackson QB is listed Out (ankle). He threw 91% of BAL's passes this season.
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 1.7 a game recently → 2.6 this game
- Jackson out · ×1.24 targets
- TE2 on the depth chart (usually TE3) · ×1.25 targets
Expected receptions: 2.6 against 0.5
No probability is shown: the formula has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026
Tightest clearance +0.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 1 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 2 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 2 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 3 / 3 | 100% over | +1.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 100% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
5 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the over: 0.5 · best price FD -215
- FanDuel 0.5 -215 (easiest number) (best price at this number)
- Hard Rock Bet 0.5 -230 (easiest number)
- BetMGM 0.5 -250 (easiest number)
- Fliff 0.5 -260 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 1.5 +184
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 0.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 1 | over |