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BAL @ BUF · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 3.5 · median of 2 books ·
56Signal · under 3.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 3.0 a game recently
Expected carries: 3.0 against 3.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Oct 26, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -2.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | CHI | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-10-30 | MIA | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | MIN | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | IND | 6 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | NO | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DAL | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | TEN | 1 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | ATL | 4 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | CLE | 0 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | CIN | 3 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
3.52 books, no line disagreementFL · PP
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs CIN | 3 | under |
| 2026-10-18 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | @ ATL | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs TEN | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DAL | 5 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs NO | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ IND | 6 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ KC | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CLE | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ BUF | 2 | under |