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Matthew Stafford
LA @ LV · Sun 4:25 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 · median of 10 books ·
48Signal · over 1.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
8 / 10Cleared the number in 8 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 41.5 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.8 against 1.5 · over 48%, under 52%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | DET | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | SEA | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2025-12-29 | ATL | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | ARI | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-10 | SF | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-21 | NYG | 4 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DEN | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | PHI | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | BUF | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | ARI | 2 over | +0.5 |
The ten-game rate rests on an average clearance under one unit of the stat: a thin habit rather than a wide one.
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% over | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.510 books, no line disagreementESPN · DK · MGM · BB · PX2 · BR · HR · FD · FL · FAN· best price at 1.5: ESPN -155
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs ARI | 2 | over |
| 2026-10-12 | vs BUF | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ PHI | 0 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DEN | 2 | over |
| 2026-09-21 | vs NYG | 4 | over |
| 2026-09-10 | vs SF | 0 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs ARI | 4 | over |
| 2025-12-29 | @ ATL | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-18 | @ SEA | 3 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | vs DET | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | @ ARI | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-30 | @ CAR | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs TB | 3 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SEA | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SF | 4 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | vs NO | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ JAX | 5 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ BAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-02 | vs SF | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs IND | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ PHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-14 | @ TEN | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs HOU | 1 | under |