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Ray Davis
BUF vs BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ETRushing Yards · 4.5 · median of 8 books ·
61Signal · under 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 1.3 a game recently
- vs BAL · ×0.97 yds per carry
Expected rushing yards: 2.9 yds against 4.5 · over 39%, under 61%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Nov 9, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -146 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | MIA | -2 under | −6.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | PIT | 62 over | +57.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | NE | 0 under | −4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CLE | 14 over | +9.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | PHI | 4 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | NYJ | 151 over | +146.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | HOU | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NE | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-12 | LA | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LV | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | -20 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
4.58 books, no line disagreementESPN · DK · FD · MGM · HR · PK6 · PP · UD
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LV | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-12 | @ LA | 2 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | vs NE | 3 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NYJ | 151 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PHI | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CLE | 14 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ NE | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ PIT | 62 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIA | -2 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | @ CAR | 16 | over |
| 2025-10-13 | @ ATL | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs NE | 1 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs NO | 3 | under |
| 2025-09-18 | vs MIA | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | @ NYJ | 24 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | vs BAL | 2 | under |