Ryan Miller

MIA @ MIN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 5.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·

70Signal · over 5.567% · 4 / 6 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 6

3 straight over

Caleb Douglas WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 20% of MIA's targets this season, 5.0 a game over 2.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

targets: 1.5 a game recently → 2.4 this game
Douglas out · +0.9 targets (17% of his 5.0)
vs MIN · ×1.01 yds per target
Heavier load · ×1.02 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 44.3 yds against 5.5 · over 81%, under 19%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 5.5 · Sep 7, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026

Worst miss -5

Each game against 5.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-09-07	ATL	0 under	−5.5
2025-09-15	HOU	20 over	+14.5
2025-09-21	NYJ	0 under	−5.5
2025-10-20	DET	14 over	+8.5
2026-09-20	SF	77 over	+71.5
2026-09-27	KC	15 over	+9.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	4 / 6	67% over	+16
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.

Book Range

5 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 5.5 · best price HR -115

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 5.5
2026-09-27	vs KC	15	over
2026-09-20	@ SF	77	over
2025-10-20	@ DET	14	over
2025-09-21	vs NYJ	0	under
2025-09-15	@ HOU	20	over
2025-09-07	@ ATL	0	under