Ryan Miller

MIA @ MIN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

Receptions · 0.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·

59Signal · over 0.567% · 4 / 6 · last 10 · the formula's chance

4 / 6

3 straight over

Caleb Douglas WR is listed Out (ankle). He had 20% of MIA's targets this season, 5.0 a game over 2.

The game history below does not account for this absence.

How the formula reads this game

targets: 1.5 a game recently → 2.4 this game
Douglas out · +0.9 targets (17% of his 5.0)

Expected receptions: 1.6 against 0.5 · over 59%, under 41%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 2 this season.

Last 10 games against 0.5 · Sep 7, 2025 – Sep 27, 2026

Worst miss -0.5

Each game against 0.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
—	—	no result	—
2025-09-07	ATL	0 under	−0.5
2025-09-15	HOU	1 over	+0.5
2025-09-21	NYJ	0 under	−0.5
2025-10-20	DET	1 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	SF	1 over	+0.5
2026-09-27	KC	2 over	+1.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	4 / 6	67% over	+0.3
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.

Book Range

0.54 books, no line disagreementFD · HR · FL · DK· best price at 0.5: FD -140

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 0.5
2026-09-27	vs KC	2	over
2026-09-20	@ SF	1	over
2025-10-20	@ DET	1	over
2025-09-21	vs NYJ	0	under
2025-09-15	@ HOU	1	over
2025-09-07	@ ATL	0	under