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T.J. Hockenson

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 36.5 · median of 5 books ·

53Signal · under 36.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games

How the formula reads this game

  • targets: 5.4 a game recently
  • vs IND · ×1.05 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 42.3 yds against 36.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 36.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -82 on the under
36.52025-11-23 at GB: 19, under 36.5 by 17.5 yds19GB2025-11-30 at SEA: 59, over 36.5 by 22.5 yds59SEA2025-12-07 vs WAS: 12, under 36.5 by 24.5 yds12WAS2025-12-14 at DAL: 66, over 36.5 by 29.5 yds66DAL2025-12-21 at NYG: 2, under 36.5 by 34.5 yds2NYG2026-09-13 vs GB: 36, under 36.5 by 0.5 yds36GB2026-09-20 at CHI: 29, under 36.5 by 7.5 yds29CHI2026-09-27 at TB: 11, under 36.5 by 25.5 yds11TB2026-10-04 vs MIA: 119, over 36.5 by 82.5 yds119MIA2026-10-11 at NO: 7, under 36.5 by 29.5 yds7NO
Each game against 36.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-11-23GB19 under−17.5
2025-11-30SEA59 over+22.5
2025-12-07WAS12 under−24.5
2025-12-14DAL66 over+29.5
2025-12-21NYG2 under−34.5
2026-09-13GB36 under−0.5
2026-09-20CHI29 under−7.5
2026-09-27TB11 under−25.5
2026-10-04MIA119 over+82.5
2026-10-11NO7 under−29.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 107 / 1070% under+1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range

5 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 37.5
  • DraftKings 36.5
  • FanDuel 36.5
  • Hard Rock Bet 36.5
  • PrizePicks 36.5
  • Fliff 37.5 (easiest number)

Line movement

  • PrizePicksMoved from 38.5 to 36.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 36.5
2026-10-11@ NO7under
2026-10-04vs MIA119over
2026-09-27@ TB11under
2026-09-20@ CHI29under
2026-09-13vs GB36under
2025-12-21@ NYG2under
2025-12-14@ DAL66over
2025-12-07vs WAS12under
2025-11-30@ SEA59over
2025-11-23@ GB19under
2025-11-16vs CHI39over
2025-11-09vs BAL8under
2025-11-02@ DET11under
2025-10-23@ LAC26under
2025-10-19vs PHI43over
2025-10-05@ CLE38over
2025-09-28@ PIT39over
2025-09-21vs CIN49over
2025-09-14vs ATL12under
2025-09-08@ CHI15under