← NFL board

T.J. Hockenson

MIN vs IND · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Receiving Yards · 36.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·

53Signal · under 36.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games

How the formula reads this game

  • targets: 5.4 a game recently
  • vs IND · ×1.05 yds per target

Expected receiving yards: 42.3 yds against 36.5 · over 47%, under 53%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.

Last 10 games against 36.5 · Nov 23, 2025 – Oct 11, 2026

Worst miss -82 on the under
36.52025-11-23 at GB: 19, under 36.5 by 17.5 yds19GB2025-11-30 at SEA: 59, over 36.5 by 22.5 yds59SEA2025-12-07 vs WAS: 12, under 36.5 by 24.5 yds12WAS2025-12-14 at DAL: 66, over 36.5 by 29.5 yds66DAL2025-12-21 at NYG: 2, under 36.5 by 34.5 yds2NYG2026-09-13 vs GB: 36, under 36.5 by 0.5 yds36GB2026-09-20 at CHI: 29, under 36.5 by 7.5 yds29CHI2026-09-27 at TB: 11, under 36.5 by 25.5 yds11TB2026-10-04 vs MIA: 119, over 36.5 by 82.5 yds119MIA2026-10-11 at NO: 7, under 36.5 by 29.5 yds7NO
Each game against 36.5
DateOpponentResultMargin
2025-11-23GB19 under−17.5
2025-11-30SEA59 over+22.5
2025-12-07WAS12 under−24.5
2025-12-14DAL66 over+29.5
2025-12-21NYG2 under−34.5
2026-09-13GB36 under−0.5
2026-09-20CHI29 under−7.5
2026-09-27TB11 under−25.5
2026-10-04MIA119 over+82.5
2026-10-11NO7 under−29.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

WindowHitsRateAvg margin for the under
Last 5 (with DPB Pro) Pro
Last 107 / 1070% under+1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro) Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) Pro
Home (with DPB Pro) Pro

See whether the 70% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

5 books · 1 yds spreadEasiest number for the under: 37.5
  • DraftKings 36.5
  • FanDuel 36.5
  • Hard Rock Bet 36.5
  • PrizePicks 36.5
  • Fliff 37.5 (easiest number)

Line movement

  • PrizePicksMoved from 38.5 to 36.5

Game log

DateOpponentResultvs 36.5
2026-10-11@ NO7under
2026-10-04vs MIA119over
2026-09-27@ TB11under
2026-09-20@ CHI29under
2026-09-13vs GB36under
2025-12-21@ NYG2under
2025-12-14@ DAL66over
2025-12-07vs WAS12under
2025-11-30@ SEA59over
2025-11-23@ GB19under
2025-11-16vs CHI39over
2025-11-09vs BAL8under
2025-11-02@ DET11under
2025-10-23@ LAC26under
2025-10-19vs PHI43over
2025-10-05@ CLE38over
2025-09-28@ PIT39over
2025-09-21vs CIN49over
2025-09-14vs ATL12under
2025-09-08@ CHI15under