← NFL board3 straight under
Travis Kelce
KC @ SEA · Sun 8:20 PM ETReceptions · 4.5 · median of 9 books ·
56Signal · under 4.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
- Rashee Rice WR is listed Out (hamstring). He had 19% of KC's targets this season, 5.7 a game over 3.
Travis's targets without Rashee Rice: 5.6 a game (11 games), against 6.6 with him (11).
The game history below does not account for this absence.
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 5.4 a game recently
Expected receptions: 4.0 against 4.5 · over 44%, under 56%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 5 games, 5 this season.
Last 10 games against 4.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -4.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | HOU | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | LAC | 7 over | +2.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | TEN | 1 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-25 | DEN | 5 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LV | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | DEN | 3 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | IND | 9 over | +4.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIA | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | LV | 2 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LAC | 4 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
4.59 books, no line disagreementHR · DK · FD · MGM · ESPN · FL · PX2 · BR · BB
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 4 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 3 | under |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LV | 3 | under |
| 2025-12-25 | vs DEN | 5 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | @ TEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 7 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 4 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 4 | under |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WAS | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 3 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 6 | over |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 7 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 5 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 4 | under |
| 2025-09-05 | @ LAC | 2 | under |