← NFL board
Trey McBride
ARI vs DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceptions · 7.5 · median of 9 books ·
49Signal · over 7.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 10.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 8.2 against 7.5 · over 49%, under 51%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 7.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -3.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | HOU | 12 over | +4.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | ATL | 4 under | −3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | CIN | 10 over | +2.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | LA | 7 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LAC | 9 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SEA | 8 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | SF | 9 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | NYG | 7 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DET | 9 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | LA | 7 under | −0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +0.7 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
7.59 books, no line disagreementMGM · HR · BB · PX2 · BR · DK · FD · ESPN · FL· best price at 7.5: MGM, HR +110
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 7.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ LA | 7 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DET | 9 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | @ NYG | 7 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ SF | 9 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs SEA | 8 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LAC | 9 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ LA | 7 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | @ CIN | 10 | over |
| 2025-12-21 | vs ATL | 4 | under |
| 2025-12-14 | @ HOU | 12 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs LA | 5 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TB | 8 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs JAX | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-16 | vs SF | 10 | over |
| 2025-11-09 | @ SEA | 9 | over |
| 2025-11-03 | @ DAL | 5 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | vs GB | 10 | over |
| 2025-10-12 | @ IND | 8 | over |
| 2025-10-05 | vs TEN | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-25 | vs SEA | 7 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | @ SF | 5 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs CAR | 6 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NO | 6 | under |