Tyjae Spears

TEN vs CLE · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Rushing Yards · 11.5 ·

55Signal · over 11.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

4 straight under

PrizePicks 11.5 ·

How the formula reads this game

carries: 3.0 a game recently
vs CLE · ×1.04 yds per carry

Expected rushing yards: 11.4 yds against 11.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 11.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026

Worst miss -11

Each game against 11.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	SF	34 over	+22.5
2025-12-21	KC	52 over	+40.5
2025-12-28	NO	2 under	−9.5
2026-01-04	JAX	18 over	+6.5
2026-09-13	NYJ	12 over	+0.5
2026-09-20	PHI	41 over	+29.5
2026-09-27	NYG	5 under	−6.5
2026-10-04	BAL	7 under	−4.5
2026-10-11	HOU	0 under	−11.5
2026-10-18	IND	1 under	−10.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+6
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Home (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

11.5PrizePicks· one book

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 11.5
2026-10-18	@ IND	1	under
2026-10-11	vs HOU	0	under
2026-10-04	@ BAL	7	under
2026-09-27	@ NYG	5	under
2026-09-20	vs PHI	41	over
2026-09-13	vs NYJ	12	over
2026-01-04	@ JAX	18	over
2025-12-28	vs NO	2	under
2025-12-21	vs KC	52	over
2025-12-14	@ SF	34	over
2025-12-07	@ CLE	19	over
2025-11-30	vs JAX	-1	under
2025-11-23	vs SEA	4	under
2025-11-16	vs HOU	3	under
2025-11-02	vs LAC	26	over
2025-10-26	@ IND	59	over
2025-10-19	vs NE	22	over
2025-10-12	@ LV	31	over
2025-10-05	@ ARI	14	over