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Adonai Mitchell
NYJ vs MIA · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceiving Yards · 25.5 · median of 8 books ·
54Signal · over 25.560% · 6 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
6 / 10Cleared the number in 6 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 7.5 a game recently
- vs MIA · ×1.01 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 49.9 yds against 25.5 · over 54%, under 46%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 8 games, 2 this season.
Last 10 games against 25.5 · Nov 13, 2025 – Sep 20, 2026
Worst miss -25| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-13 | NE | 10 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | BAL | 42 over | +16.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | ATL | 102 over | +76.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | MIA | 24 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | JAX | 58 over | +32.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NO | 43 over | +17.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NE | 22 under | −3.5 |
| 2026-01-04 | BUF | 0 under | −25.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 60 over | +34.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | GB | 63 over | +37.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 6 / 10 | 60% over | +17 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 60% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
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Book Range
8 books · 2 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 24.5
- Underdog 24.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 25.5 -111
- Fliff 25.5 -125
- DK Pick6 25.5
- PrizePicks 25.5
- FanDuel 26.5 -114
- BetMGM 26.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 26.5 -115
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 25.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | vs GB | 63 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 60 | over |
| 2026-01-04 | @ BUF | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NE | 22 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ NO | 43 | over |
| 2025-12-14 | @ JAX | 58 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs MIA | 24 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ATL | 102 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | @ BAL | 42 | over |
| 2025-11-13 | @ NE | 10 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | @ PIT | 7 | under |
| 2025-10-26 | vs TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-19 | @ LAC | 8 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs LV | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | @ LA | 96 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-14 | vs DEN | 20 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | vs MIA | 21 | under |