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Geno Smith
NYJ vs LV · Sun 1:00 PM ETPassing TDs · 1.5 · median of 8 books ·
55Signal · under 1.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
3 / 10Cleared the number in 3 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 29.6 a game recently
Expected passing tds: 1.4 against 1.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 7 games, 7 this season.
Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 7, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -1.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | DEN | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU | 2 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | NYG | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | TEN | 0 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | GB | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | DET | 3 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | CHI | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CLE | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | NE | 1 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIA | 3 over | +1.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% under | +0.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
1.58 books, no line disagreementFD · FAN · BB · PX2 · BR · DK · HR · PK6
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs MIA | 3 | over |
| 2026-10-18 | @ NE | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CHI | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | @ DET | 3 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs GB | 1 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ TEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-28 | vs NYG | 1 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ HOU | 2 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs DEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | @ LAC | 2 | over |
| 2025-11-23 | vs CLE | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-17 | vs DAL | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-06 | @ DEN | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-02 | vs JAX | 4 | over |
| 2025-10-19 | @ KC | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs TEN | 1 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | @ IND | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-28 | vs CHI | 2 | over |
| 2025-09-21 | @ WAS | 3 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | vs LAC | 0 | under |
| 2025-09-07 | @ NE | 1 | under |