Brock Purdy

SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Completions · 20.5 at Fliff ·

55Signal · over 20.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

5 / 10

How the formula reads this game

pass attempts: 28.5 a game recently

Expected completions: 19.8 against 20.5 · over 45%, under 55%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 20.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026

Worst miss -5.5

Each game against 20.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	TEN	23 over	+2.5
2025-12-22	IND	25 over	+4.5
2025-12-28	CHI	24 over	+3.5
2026-01-03	SEA	19 under	−1.5
2026-09-10	LA	25 over	+4.5
2026-09-20	MIA	20 under	−0.5
2026-09-27	ARI	15 under	−5.5
2026-10-04	DEN	19 under	−1.5
2026-10-11	SEA	19 under	−1.5
2026-10-19	WAS	21 over	+0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	5 / 10	50%	+0.5
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card

Book Range

20.58 books, no line disagreementPX2 · BR · DK · BB · HR · FL · PP · UD

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 20.5
2026-10-19	vs WAS	21	over
2026-10-11	@ SEA	19	under
2026-10-04	vs DEN	19	under
2026-09-27	vs ARI	15	under
2026-09-20	vs MIA	20	under
2026-09-10	@ LA	25	over
2026-01-03	vs SEA	19	under
2025-12-28	vs CHI	24	over
2025-12-22	@ IND	25	over
2025-12-14	vs TEN	23	over
2025-11-30	@ CLE	16	under
2025-11-24	vs CAR	23	over
2025-11-16	@ ARI	19	under
2025-09-28	vs JAX	22	over
2025-09-07	@ SEA	26	over