Brock Purdy

SF @ ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Passing TDs · 1.5 at Hard Rock Bet ·

52Signal · over 1.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance

8 / 10

How the formula reads this game

pass attempts: 28.5 a game recently

Expected passing tds: 2.3 against 1.5 · over 52%, under 48%

Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.

Last 10 games against 1.5 · Dec 14, 2025 – Oct 19, 2026

Worst miss -1.5

Each game against 1.5
Date	Opponent	Result	Margin
2025-12-14	TEN	3 over	+1.5
2025-12-22	IND	5 over	+3.5
2025-12-28	CHI	3 over	+1.5
2026-01-03	SEA	0 under	−1.5
2026-09-10	LA	3 over	+1.5
2026-09-20	MIA	2 over	+0.5
2026-09-27	ARI	4 over	+2.5
2026-10-04	DEN	2 over	+0.5
2026-10-11	SEA	2 over	+0.5
2026-10-19	WAS	1 under	−0.5

Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made

Splits

Window	Hits	Rate	Avg margin for the over
Last 5 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Last 10	8 / 10	80% over	+1
Last 20 (with DPB Pro)	Pro
This season (2026) (with DPB Pro)	Pro
Away (with DPB Pro)	Pro

See whether the 80% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range

1.59 books, no line disagreementFD · FAN · HR · BB · PX2 · BR · DK · ESPN · FL· best price at 1.5: FD -144

Line movement

No book has moved its number since first posting it.

Game log

Date	Opponent	Result	vs 1.5
2026-10-19	vs WAS	1	under
2026-10-11	@ SEA	2	over
2026-10-04	vs DEN	2	over
2026-09-27	vs ARI	4	over
2026-09-20	vs MIA	2	over
2026-09-10	@ LA	3	over
2026-01-03	vs SEA	0	under
2025-12-28	vs CHI	3	over
2025-12-22	@ IND	5	over
2025-12-14	vs TEN	3	over
2025-11-30	@ CLE	1	under
2025-11-24	vs CAR	1	under
2025-11-16	@ ARI	3	over
2025-09-28	vs JAX	2	over
2025-09-07	@ SEA	2	over