← NFL board3 straight over
Bucky Irving
TB @ CAR · Sun 1:00 PM ETCarries · 15.5 · median of 9 books ·
47Signal · over 15.570% · 7 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
7 / 10Cleared the number in 7 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- carries: 16.0 a game recently
Expected carries: 16.0 against 15.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 15.5 · Dec 11, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -7.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | ATL | 16 over | +0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | CAR | 19 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | MIA | 9 under | −6.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | CAR | 26 over | +10.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | CIN | 8 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | CLE | 17 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | MIN | 15 under | −0.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | GB | 16 over | +0.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | DAL | 21 over | +5.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | PIT | 19 over | +3.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 7 / 10 | 70% over | +1.1 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 70% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
15.59 books, no line disagreementMGM · FAN · DK · HR · FL · PX2 · BB · PP · UD· best price at 15.5: MGM, FAN -110
Line movement
- UnderdogMoved from 16.5 to 15.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 15.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | vs PIT | 19 | over |
| 2026-10-08 | @ DAL | 21 | over |
| 2026-10-04 | vs GB | 16 | over |
| 2026-09-27 | vs MIN | 15 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | vs CLE | 17 | over |
| 2026-09-13 | @ CIN | 8 | under |
| 2026-01-03 | vs CAR | 26 | over |
| 2025-12-28 | @ MIA | 9 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CAR | 19 | over |
| 2025-12-11 | vs ATL | 16 | over |
| 2025-12-07 | vs NO | 15 | under |
| 2025-11-30 | vs ARI | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-28 | vs PHI | 15 | under |
| 2025-09-21 | vs NYJ | 25 | over |
| 2025-09-15 | @ HOU | 17 | over |
| 2025-09-07 | @ ATL | 14 | under |