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Caleb Douglas
MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETReceiving Yards · 38.5 at BetMGM · median 36.5 ·
51Signal · over 38.567% · 2 / 3 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 3Cleared the number in 2 of 3 games, 7 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
- vs NE · ×0.98 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 60.1 yds against 38.5 · over 51%, under 49%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 38.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 94 over | +55.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 19 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 70 over | +31.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the over |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 2 / 3 | 67% over | +23 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 67% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
12 books · 5 yds spreadEasiest number for the over: 34.5
- ESPN Bet 34.5 -125 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 36.5 -112
- Bally Bet 36.5 -132
- betPARX 36.5 -132
- BetRivers 36.5 -132
- DK Pick6 36.5
- PrizePicks 36.5
- BetMGM 38.5 -115
- Hard Rock Bet 38.5 -115
- Fliff 38.5 -125
- FanDuel 39.5 -114
- Underdog 39.5
Line movement
- DraftKingsMoved from 39.5 to 36.5
- FliffMoved from 39.5 to 38.5
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 40.5 to 38.5
- FanDuelMoved from 40.5 to 39.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 38.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 70 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 19 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 94 | over |