← NFL board3 straight under
Malik Willis
MIA vs NE · Sun 4:25 PM ETCompletions · 16.5 · median of 11 books ·
57Signal · under 16.580% · 8 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 10Cleared the number in 2 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- pass attempts: 25.2 a game recently
Expected completions: 14.5 against 16.5 · over 43%, under 57%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 6 games, 6 this season.
Last 10 games against 16.5 · Nov 16, 2025 – Oct 25, 2026
Worst miss -3.5 on the under| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | NYG | 2 under | −14.5 |
| 2025-11-23 | MIN | 1 under | −15.5 |
| 2025-12-20 | CHI | 9 under | −7.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | BAL | 18 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 15 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 14 under | −2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | KC | 20 over | +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | MIN | 9 under | −7.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | CIN | 15 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 14 under | −2.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin for the under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 8 / 10 | 80% under | +4.8 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 80% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
11 books · 1 spreadEasiest number for the under: 16.5
- BetMGM 15.5
- ESPN Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- Bally Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- betPARX 16.5 (easiest number)
- BetRivers 16.5 (easiest number)
- DraftKings 16.5 (easiest number)
- Hard Rock Bet 16.5 (easiest number)
- Fliff 16.5 (easiest number)
- DK Pick6 16.5 (easiest number)
- PrizePicks 16.5 (easiest number)
- Underdog 16.5 (easiest number)
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 16.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 14 | under |
| 2026-10-11 | vs CIN | 15 | under |
| 2026-10-04 | @ MIN | 9 | under |
| 2026-09-27 | vs KC | 20 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 14 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 15 | under |
| 2025-12-27 | vs BAL | 18 | over |
| 2025-12-20 | @ CHI | 9 | under |
| 2025-11-23 | vs MIN | 1 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ NYG | 2 | under |