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Caleb Douglas
MIA vs DET · Sun 1:00 PM ETReceptions · 3.5 at ESPN Bet ·
55Signal · under 3.550% · 2 / 4 · last 10 · the formula's chance
2 / 4Cleared the number in 2 of 4 games, 6 without a result
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.8 a game recently
Expected receptions: 3.3 against 3.5 · over 45%, under 55%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 4 games, 4 this season.
Last 10 games against 3.5 · Sep 13, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026
Worst miss -1.5| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| — | — | no result | — |
| 2026-09-13 | LV | 5 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | SF | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYJ | 2 under | −1.5 |
| 2026-11-01 | NE | 4 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 2 / 4 | 50% | -0.2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Home (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → The four windows all agree with it within 20 points; DPB Pro shows each one.
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Book Range
9 books · 1 spread
- betPARX 2.5
- BetRivers 2.5
- Bally Bet 2.5
- FanDuel 2.5
- DraftKings 3.5
- Fliff 3.5
- Hard Rock Bet 3.5
- BetMGM 3.5
- ESPN Bet 3.5
Line movement
No book has moved its number since first posting it.
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | vs NE | 4 | over |
| 2026-10-25 | @ NYJ | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-20 | @ SF | 2 | under |
| 2026-09-13 | @ LV | 5 | over |