← NFL board3 straight over
Charlie Kolar
LAC @ LA · Sun 4:05 PM ETReceiving Yards · 19.5 at ESPN Bet · median 18.5 ·
53Signal · under 19.550% · 5 / 10 · last 10 · the formula's chance
5 / 10Cleared the number in 5 of 10 games
How the formula reads this game
- targets: 4.3 a game recently
- vs LA · ×0.91 yds per target
Expected receiving yards: 23.7 yds against 19.5 · over 47%, under 53%
Provisional: Formula v2 has not yet beaten the books' own lines on a week it never saw, so the Signal is held between 30 and 70. Its record. Baseline: 3 games, 3 this season.
Last 10 games against 19.5 · Oct 30, 2025 – Oct 18, 2026
Worst miss -19| Date | Opponent | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-30 | MIA | 23 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-09 | MIN | 23 over | +3.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | CLE | 0 under | −19.5 |
| 2025-11-27 | CIN | 17 under | −2.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | PIT | 19 under | −0.5 |
| 2025-12-21 | NE | 18 under | −1.5 |
| 2025-12-27 | GB | 0 under | −19.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | LV | 21 over | +1.5 |
| 2026-10-11 | DEN | 37 over | +17.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | KC | 20 over | +0.5 |
Historical result — not a prediction. How the numbers are made
Splits
| Window | Hits | Rate | Avg margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Last 10 | 5 / 10 | 50% | -2 |
| Last 20 (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| This season (2026) (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
| Away (with DPB Pro) | Pro | ||
See whether the 50% survives the other windows → One of the four windows disagrees by 20 points or more. Last 5, last 20, this season and the venue split come with DPB Pro.
Try every Pro feature free for 7 days, no card
Book Range
10 books · 2 yds spread
- FanDuel 17.5
- Hard Rock Bet 17.5
- betPARX 18.5
- BetRivers 18.5
- Bally Bet 18.5
- DraftKings 18.5
- BetMGM 18.5
- DK Pick6 18.5
- PrizePicks 18.5
- ESPN Bet 19.5
Line movement
- Hard Rock BetMoved from 18.5 to 17.5
- Bally BetMoved from 20.5 to 18.5
- BetMGMMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
- betPARXMoved from 20.5 to 18.5
- BetRiversMoved from 20.5 to 18.5
- DraftKingsMoved from 21.5 to 18.5
- DK Pick6Moved from 21.5 to 18.5
- PrizePicksMoved from 19.5 to 18.5
Game log
| Date | Opponent | Result | vs 19.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | @ KC | 20 | over |
| 2026-10-11 | vs DEN | 37 | over |
| 2026-09-20 | vs LV | 21 | over |
| 2025-12-27 | @ GB | 0 | under |
| 2025-12-21 | vs NE | 18 | under |
| 2025-12-07 | vs PIT | 19 | under |
| 2025-11-27 | vs CIN | 17 | under |
| 2025-11-16 | @ CLE | 0 | under |
| 2025-11-09 | @ MIN | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-30 | @ MIA | 23 | over |
| 2025-10-26 | vs CHI | 10 | under |
| 2025-10-12 | vs LA | 0 | under |
| 2025-10-05 | vs HOU | 10 | under |
| 2025-09-22 | vs DET | 22 | over |